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Papi Not Only Storyline of 2016

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The outstanding final year for David Ortiz shouldn’t overshadow the contributions to the Red Sox up and down the line up and, indeed, among some of the pitching staff, too.

As the penultimate month of the 2016 season draws to a close, Boston remains in contention, thanks in large measure to its prodigious offensive strength. The Red Sox still lead the major leagues in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Consequently, they also lead in hits, runs scored and runs batted in.

Ortiz crossed the 100 RBI milestone this past week for the 10th time in his career. As of this writing he’s on pace for 125 runs batted, which would stand as his fourth most in a single season. That he’s doing it in his age-40 season is all the more remarkable. Papi’s top run production came in 2005, when he was responsible for 148 RBI or fully 17.1% of the club’s total production (863 RBI).

Ortiz career RBI

Spreading the Load

Ortiz’ RBI contribution to the Sox in 2016 is just shy of 15% of the club’s total run production. Thirteen other MLB teams this season have received 15% of more of their total production from their RBI leader. That’s a substantial uptick from last season, when only six clubs had that many of their runs coming solely from their RBI leader.And while Ortiz is Boston’s leader for RBI (and doubles, home runs, walks, and OPS), the Sox, unlike some other teams, haven’t had to rely upon him solely for getting runs on the board.

Red Sox RBI in 2016

The 2016 Red Sox are the only major league club with four players (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, and Ortiz) to have 75 or more RBI this season. Three clubs, the Cubs, Reds, and Mariners, each have 3 players with at least that many RBI this season.

It’s impressive to see one player have such an impact on a club, but when it happens, it underscores the weakness that such reliance can create.

Sole Producers

Across all of baseball, the Angels have relied most on their RBI leader, Albert Pujols. To date, he’s responsible for nearly a fifth of Los Angeles’ run production this season, highlighting his nearly irreplaceable importance to the club overall. Pujols and Mike Trout are the only Angels this season with at least 75 RBI.

Of particular note to Boston fans looking ahead to an Papi-free lineup in 2017 is free-agent-to-be Edwin Encarnacion. His 106 RBIs account for more than 17% of Toronto’s total run production in 2016. Signing Encarnacion to Boston would simultaneously power the Sox lineup and hand a blow to powerful division rival. Encarnacion, a three-time All Star, has collected at least 98 RBI in each of the last five seasons and, focused no doubt by his impending free agency windfall, is just five from matching his career high of 111 RBI in 2015.

RBI Team Effort

When it comes to the importance of a single contributor, the Red Sox reliance on Ortiz puts them in the middle of the pack.

Noteworthy, though, are clubs like the Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Mets, and especially the Cardinals.

To greater or lesser degrees, these teams are all in playoff contention, but none have relied on any one player to deliver a high percentage of their total runs.

RBI Leader Contributions, All MLB Teams, Through August 30, 2016

In fact, St. Louis has scored the fourth most runs in all of baseball but its RBI leader, Stephen Piscotty, has accounted for just 73 of them, or less than 12%. Instead, the Cardinals load is spread among six players with 50 or more RBI this season.


Post Season Schedule

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UntitledHard to believe, but the 2016 postseason is just around the corner. Today, Major League Baseball announced the full schedule:

  • Any necessary regular season Tiebreaker Games (ESPN), Monday October 3.
  • American League Wild Card Game (TBS), Tuesday October 4.
  • National League Wild Card Game (ESPN), Wednesday October 5.
  • Both AL Division Series start (TBS), Thursday October 6.
  • Both NL Division Series start (MLB Network or FS1), Friday October 7.
  • AL Championship Series (TBS) starts Friday October 14.
  • NL Championship Series (FOX or FS1) starts Saturday October 15.
  • 112th World Series Game One (FOX), Tuesday October 25 in the home of the AL champs.

Should the World Series go all seven games, the last will be played on Wednesday November 2.

ESPN radio will cover all postseason games.

If you’re an MLB.TV subscriber you’ll be able to watch all games telecast on MLB Network, TBS or FOX, once you’re authenticated as a subscriber to the applicable network through a participating pay TV provider (like DirecTV).


Rodríguez One Last Time

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It’s not every time that you know exactly when you’ll see the last of a player. Often they are injured suddenly or retire in the off-season. We expect to know when we’ll last see David Ortiz at the plate, and it seems fairly certain now that we know when we’ll see the end of Alex Rodríguez.

By now, no doubt, you’ve heard the news that Rodríguez, a 14-time All-Star and 3-time MVP who is now suffering through a miserable 2016 (.204 AVG/.252 OBP/.356 SLG in 62 games), will be released by the Yankees following Friday’s game to become a special advisor and instructor for the club. Why the Yankees, with the rosters expanding in September, wouldn’t want their new instructor traveling with the youngsters for the remainder of the season is a mystery only the Steinbrenner’s may understand. Perhaps, at the end of the day, it’s simply retribution for the shoddy way A-Rod treated his baseball family in the wake of his PED disgrace.

A-Rod against the Sox

Rodríguez’ career includes 263 games against the Red Sox, 1,154 total plate appearances (his very most against any club) and a slash line of .285 AVG/.378 OBP/.516 SLG. Against Boston he has a career 46 doubles, 3 triples (all at Fenway), 59 home runs, 169 RBI, 133 walks, and 222 strikeouts.

Since his debut in 1994, no major leaguer has more home runs or RBIs against the Red Sox than A-Rod. Moreover, no MLB player in that timeframe has more of either of those (22 home runs and 66 RBIs) coming with two outs.

For his career at Fenway Park, Rodríguez has appeared in 131 games with 576 plate appearances and a slash line of .287 AVG/.366 OBP/.514 SLG with a career 22 doubles, 29 home runs, 88 RBI, 55 walks, and 113 strikeouts. His total at-bats, hits, and runs scored at Fenway are his most at any non-home ballpark.

Among all Yankees vs the Red Sox since 1913, A-Rod ranks 5th in stolen bases (48, needs seven to tie Derek Jeter at No. 4), 6th in home runs (59, needs two to tie Harmon Killebrew at No. 5), and 8th in runs scored (195, needs 16 to tie Mickey Mantle at No. 7).

Down on strikes

Rodríguez’ very first major league series was at Fenway Park on July 8–10, 1994. He went 2-for–11 with four strikeouts. Since that time, no MLB player has been a greater victim of Red Sox strikeouts (222), including 76 inning-ending strikeouts, which is also the most in that time.

In fact, A-Rod is just a strikeout away from tying Reggie Jackson for the second most Red Sox strikeouts of any player, on any team, since 1913. With eight more he’ll have 230 to tie Mantle at No. 1 on that ignominious list.

What might have been

I remember well his courtship with Boston back in 2003 when the new Sox ownership thought Rodríguez just the ticket to the World Series. The photogenic young ball player arranging a tour at Harvard as Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy christened him “a class act…comfortable with his star status, mingles easily with fans and media, and is eager to learn,” while Rodríguez declared himself willing to take less salary for the chance to play for a contender. Joon Lee recounts the negotiation meeting between A-Rod and former Sox GM Theo Epstein. “It was hard to relate [to Rodriguez],” Epstein said. “I’m the same age as this guy and he’s like another species. This guy’s got it all together.”

Why a player with such natural gifts would taint himself is hard to comprehend.

When the Players Union objected to any deal that included a reduced salary and Rodríguez slipped from the Red Sox grasp, it seemed a very bad thing.

At Sports Illustrated, Jay Jaffe considers what might have been had Epstein pulled off the complicated deal that, in part, would have sent Manny Ramirez and very young Jon Lester, along with cash, to the Rangers in return for Rodríguez. The deal that never happened is also chronicled in ESPN’s 30-for–30 series.

First and last time at Fenway

Rodríguez is undoubtedly a smart guy. He’s likely also a reflective one.

As he walks into Fenway this week he will, no doubt, recall his very first major league at-bat on that day back in 1994, just days before his 19th birthday. It was here, with the Mariners, that it all started for A-Rod. And it’s here, nearly 2,800 games and 22 years later, that it all draws to a close.


Benintendi makes his mark

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Don’t be surprised to be seeing more of Andrew Benintendi in Red Sox line-ups, says Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Manager John Farrell is already backing away from the original plans to play Benintendi primarily against right-handed pitchers. Any additional playing time for the 22-year-old rookie will likely come at the expense of Bryce Brentz.

On Sunday, Benintendi had three hits against the Dodgers, becoming the seventh player this season with a three-hit outing within their first five major league games. The last Red Sox player to achieve that was Dan Butler on September 10, 2014 in his 4th career game.

In addition to his three hits, Benintendi’s Sunday included his first major league stolen base and two RBIs. The only other Sox player since 1913 with a game like that within his first five big league games was Jody Reed in 1987.

Benintendi is now 5-for–13 (.385) since his debut.


Weekend Odds ‘n Ends

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Just about every weekend on RSNStats.com, we have a look at nine story lines of interest to Red Sox fans for games past and present. On this Trade Deadline Weekend, here’s the latest set of these odds ‘n ends. Hope you enjoy.

  1. Losing two to the Twins, then being swept by the Tigers, not to mention the dreadful end to Thursday’s game in Anaheim sent shivers down the backs of Red Sox fans this past week, and for good reason. Despite a prodigious offense, tops in so many categories, Red Sox pitching, despite back-to-back stellar outings from David Price and Rik Porcello recently, is mediocre and downright unreliable. Do I want to see Betts, Bogaerts, or Bradley leave in a trade? Of course not. I’m glad fixing this problem isn’t my job. But it is Dave Dombrowski’s. He needs to do something if there’s a hope of even seeing this team in the postseason in 2016. If I’m Dombrowski’s boss, my message is clear: It’s a tough problem, but it’s yours to solve. Work it out, get it done, live with the consequences.

  2. Speaking of Mookie Betts, he’s managed 16 stolen bases and 20 home runs in less than 100 games played this season. The only other player in baseball to accomplish that is Wil Myers of the Padres. The only other MLB player to do that in history was the Blue Jays Raul Mondesi in 2000.
  3. As David Ortiz marches up one leaderboard after another, you keep coming across certain names, like Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski. Just how good was he? Once Yaz hit for the cycle then tacked on another home run, just because. Only seven MLB players have ever done that, the last being Greg Colbrunn of the Diamondbacks in 2002. Of course, as good as you might be, there’s always the possibility of someone being better. In this case, it’s the Yankee Clipper. Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio not only tacked on a home run with his cycle, but he did it twice (July 9, 1937 and May 20, 1948).
  4. Back to that incredible Sox offense this season. Did you know that three of the top five two-out slugging percentages in baseball are by Red Sox players? Remarkably, with two outs David Ortiz has an MLB-best .755 SLG followed by Betts (.673), Washington’s Daniel Murphy (.672), Arizona’s Jake Lamb (.664), and then Jackie Bradley (.627). Can’t allow all that to go to waste!
  5. A highlight of the Red Sox recent matchup against the Twins came from Dustin Pedroia, who tied a career-high with five hits including two doubles, an RBI, and three runs scored in Boston’s 13-2 win in Game 1 of that series. It was Pedroia’s fourth career five-hit game, which tied Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski and Johnny Pesky for the most in Red Sox history since 1913. Hall of Famer Ty Cobb holds the record since 1913 for 5-hit games (11). Pete Rose had 10 followed by Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn (9) and Max Carey (9). Pedroia is the 9th second baseman in history with four or more such games.
  6. After a brief downturn, home runs are back. As of this writing there have been 3,442 round-trippers in 1,497 MLB games for an average of 2.29 per game or the most per game since 2.34 in 2000. Over the past 16 seasons, the home run average per game was lowest in 2014 (1.72), 2011 (1.87), 2010 (1.90) and 2013 (1.92).
  7. The Giants exited the All-Star break with six straight losses, including both games of a two-game set at Fenway. In so doing, San Francisco became the first team to lose their first six games of the second half after ending the first half with the best record in baseball since the 1991 Dodgers. LA  lost their first seven games after the break that season.
  8. What a remarkable few days for AL Player of the Week Hanley Ramirez. You can read more about that here, but note this too: at the time of this writing Hammerin’ Hanley is just two from joining five other Red Sox teammates with 100+ hits this season. Hanley had 100 hits for all of last season. At this rate, Ramirez could have his most single-season hits since belting 155 in 2012. Don’t have to mention his throwing error clinched an Angels win in the bottom of the 9th Thursday. That was unfortunate, but frankly, Hanley has overall been far more productive than anyone could reasonably have expected back around April 1.
  9. When Hanley arrives at 100 hits the Red Sox will be the only club in baseball with six such players this season. No other American League club has more four such players. You just can’t waste this. Return to Item No. 1 above.