42 Years and Counting

January 29, 2017 2 Comments

In 2016 the American League averaged just over four and a half runs per game, the league’s best such performance since averaging 4.82 runs per game in 2009. By comparison, the National League average last season was 4.44 runs/game, an uptick over their 2015 performance (4.11).2016 was the 42nd consecutive season that AL clubs averaged more runs per game than NL clubs. The senior circuit last edged the junior in 1974 when NL clubs averaged 4.15 runs/game vs the AL’s 4.10 total. In all the seasons that have come since, the greatest disparity was in 1996, with 5.39 runs/game for AL clubs vs 4.68 for the NL crews, a difference of 0.71.

The table to the right, admittedly a lot of data, shows the story, year by year. For each season starting from 1975 you can read, from left to right, the average runs scored by AL teams, by NL teams, and difference between the two. To the right of that are three columns that show Red Sox performance, including the club’s average runs/game, how that compared to the AL average, and notes about the Sox performance relative to the rest of Major League Baseball. Green shading spotlights peaks. Red shading draws your attention to those seasons when Sox performance fell below the AL average.

All things considered and as far as run scoring goes, the American and National Leagues were fairly evenly matched last season, the edge going to the AL by just 0.08 runs/game. That’s the smallest disparity since 1976 (0.03).

Red Sox: A Run Scoring Machine

Red Sox fans of recent vintage will likely not remember the teams of the 1990s that struggled with run production. In the nine seasons between 1992 and 2000, Boston scoring landed below baseball’s average four times (1992-94, 2000). The tide was turned, however, with the arrival of Manny Ramirez in 2001 and David Ortiz in 2003, with Boston turning in best-in-baseball performances for three straight years (2003-05), to say nothing of a World Championship.

Despite the briefest appearance in the postseason in 2016 (which speaks volumes about the relative value of offensive prowess unsupported by reliable pitching), the Sox were again a well-oiled run scoring machine. Boston averaged a Major League best 5.42 runs/game, nearly a full run better than the league average (+0.90). Since 1975, the only better performing Sox clubs relative to AL run production average are the 2013 (+0.94), 2011 (+0.94), and 2003 (+1.07) editions.

Indeed, over the past 15 seasons the Red Sox have fallen below league run production averages just once (2014), but landed in MLB’s Top 3 in ten of those campaigns, including six times as the top run producers per game.

Tellingly, Boston averaged at least 0.45 runs more per game than the league in each of its World Championship seasons, though it’s also clear that owning MLB’s most productive offense is nothing close to a guarantee of postseason domination. Over the past 15 seasons, the team with baseball’s best runs/game ratio has won the Fall Classic just three times: the 2004 and 2013 Red Sox and the 2009 Yankees.

The chart below illustrates Red Sox average runs per game as compared to the league averages since 1975.

Average Runs Per Game, Red Sox vs AL, 1976-2016

Odds ‘n Ends

December 17, 2016 1 Comment

In the aftermath of the eventful Winter Meetings and, with the Christmas holidays now just days away, the news has slowed down a bit. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some bits of news of interest to Red Sox fans. Here are a couple of notes to catch you up.

In his seven big league seasons new Sox starter Chris Sale has worn #49 on his jersey but he won’t do that when he joins the Red Sox this Spring in Fort Myers. Instead, Sale will switch to #41. The decision was Sale’s and he made it, he says, out of respect for Sox Hall of Famer Tim Wakefield. “He deserves to hold on to that number,” Sale told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham. Wakefield wore #49 in all 19 years of his career, 17 of those with Boston.

For many fans it will be odd to experience a Red Sox roster without Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. Both have been mainstays of the Sox bullpen but both will be pitching in different uniforms in 2017.

Uehara, 41, who pitched four seasons with the Sox, signed a one-year deal with the World Champion Cubs for $4.5 million (and eight round-trip, business class tickets to Japan). Koji’s 79 Boston saves are seventh most in club history; his 2.19 ERA in 226.0 IP is the lowest ever for any Boston reliever with 100+ innings pitched, besting Jonathan Papelbon‘s 2.33 mark over 429.1 IP from 2005-11.

Junichi Tazawa made the 4th most relief appearances in Red Sox history.

Tazawa, who is 30 and spent all seven of his big league seasons with Boston, will work for the Miami Marlins, who inked him to a two-year, $12 million deal. Taz ends his Sox career at 17-20 with a 3.58 ERA over 312.0 IP in 302 appearances, all but four of them in relief. Only Bob Stanley (637), Papelbon (396), and Mike Timlin (394) made more relief appearances for the Sox in franchise history.

It’s difficult to forget the poignant appearance of Baseball Hall of Famer Rod Carew at Fenway Park last summer. Carew, 71, had a massive heart attack in September 2015. Doctors were able to keep him alive by implanting a ventricular assist device in his heart, but his hope for longterm survival hinged on the availability of a transplant. Carew’s wish was granted this week when he received a new heart and kidney in a 13-hour procedure.

Anthony Varvaro, who pitched in 166 MLB games, including the last nine of his career with the Red Sox in 2015, has become a police officer with the New York Port Authority. Varvaro pitched with the Braves, Mariners, and Sox, amassing a 3.23 ERA over 183.2 IP, all in relief.

Aftermath: Odds Favor Red Sox

December 7, 2016 1 Comment

A day after the blockbuster deal that brought him to Boston, Chris Sale, calling the Red Sox “one of the greatest baseball franchises ever,” expressed his excitement to be joining a bonafide, perennial playoff contender.

At the annual Winter Meetings on Tuesday, Red Sox baseball president Dave Dombrowski dealt four prospects, including the highly-regarded Yoan Moncada, to the White Sox for Sale, one of baseball’s premier players. It was the biggest of three deals Dombrowski completed in one day, including acquiring Mitch Moreland and Tyler Thornburg.

The moves improved the Red Sox’ 2017 World Series odds from 9/1 to 11/2, second only to the Cubs, who at 15/4 currently have the best odds of repeating their big October win. Oddsmakers rank the Nationals, Indians, and Astros after Chicago-NL and Boston.

Here are some other news and notes for Red Sox fans:

Sale has spent all seven of his big league seasons in the AL Central with the White Sox, but he does have a record in the East, including a lifetime 1.44 ERA at the Rays Tropicana Field (four starts), a 1.80 ERA at both the Blue Jays Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium (three and four GS, respectively), a 2.49 ERA at Oriole Park at Camden Yards (4 GS), and a 3.63 ERA at Fenway (three GS). The Washington Post deftly explores why pitching at home could be Sale’s Achilles Heel.
One thing Sale will find different in Boston are the attendance levels and corresponding energy in the ballpark. Last season the White Sox drew an average crowd of fewer than 22,000 fans, ranking them 26th of the 30 major league teams for home support.
Dombrowski told the Providence Journal‘s Brian MacPherson he “wouldn’t want to keep bothering” David Ortiz about cancelling his retirement after Papi’s comments about Sale raised some eyebrows. “My boy sale to Btown? You guys got me thinking,” Ortiz wrote on Instagram shortly after the news broke Tuesday. David was likely just joking, Dombrowski says, adding “if he really had sincere interest, that he would call.” In any case, any return from the voluntary retired list would require Papi to sit out the first 60 days of the season.
In the aftermath of Tuesday’s Red Sox moves, Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman was calling the Sox “the Golden State Warriors of baseball.” Cashman says the Bombers were never seriously pursuing Sale, despite the club’s need for starting pitching. “It is not a deal that we should be doing at this moment in time,” Cashman said, noting the club is not in a position to give up its top prospects.
Speaking of the New York club, the Yankees will retire Derek Jeter‘s No. 2 in a ceremony on Mother’s Day, May 14. Jeter’s will be the 21st number retired in franchise history, the most retired numbers in baseball. With Jeter’s, the first ten numbers will no longer be available to future Yankees. The others are 1. Billy Martin, 3. Babe Ruth, 4. Lou Gehrig, 5. Joe DiMaggio, 6. Joe Torre, 7. Mickey Mantle, 8. Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey, 9. Roger Maris, and 10. Phil Rizzuto.

Red Sox get Chris Sale

December 6, 2016 Leave a Comment

Reports from around baseball and first from FOX’s Ken Rosenthal say White Sox ace Chris Sale will be part of the 2017 Red Sox. Sox Baseball President Dave Dombrowski made the blockbuster deal in return for the promising Yoan Moncada, pitcher Michael Kopech, and two other prospects. Until today, the Nationals had been said to be the team leading to acquire Sale.

Sale, who is just 27 and a five-time consecutive season All-Star, has spent his entire major league career with the White Sox, developing a 74-50 record with a 3.00 ERA in 228 games over seven seasons.

He also, last season, developed a reputation as a hot head (and earned a five-game suspension) following a bizarre Shredding Incident.

Chris Sale
flickr photo shared by Keith Allison under a Creative Commons ( BY-SA ) license

On the field in 2016 Sale was 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA in 32 starts over 226.2 IP, both career highs. Last season, Sale led all of baseball with six complete games and trailed only Rick Porcello and the Indians Josh Tomlin in MLB with a 5.178 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Among American League hurlers, only the Tigers’ Justin Verlander (254) had more strikeouts than Sale, who was tied with the Rays Chris Archer for second place (233).

From 2012-16 Sale is the American League leader for ERA (3.04), strikeouts (1,133), WHIP (1.06), opponent OBP (.280), strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.08), and opponent OPS (.635). Also during that stretch, Sale is second in the league for opponent AVG (.227), quality starts (109), and wins (70).

Sales contract puts him under Red Sox control through the 2019 season at a salary of $12M, $12.5M, and $13.M, respectively for the next three seasons.

Sale grew up in Lakeland, Florida, attending Lakeland Senior High School and Florida Gulf Coast University. In 2009 Sale was Baseball America‘s #1 Prospect in the Cape Cod League after going 4-2 with a 1.47 ERA and 57 strikeouts for Yarmouth-Dennis. Sale was a first-round draft pick by the White Sox in the 2010 amateur draft and made his MLB debut that same year, one of five players in baseball history to do so.

News of Sale overshadows another Dombrowski deal made earlier in the day to acquire reliever Tyler Thornberg from the Brewers in return for Travis Shaw and two prospects, infielder Mauricio Dubon and pitcher Josh Pennington.

New Hall of Famers

December 5, 2016 Leave a Comment

Back in October, as RSNStats mentioned briefly, the National Baseball Hall of Fame entertained 10 new names for enshrinement and on Sunday the decision was made for two.

Longtime baseball executive John Schuerholz and former major league commissioner Allan “Bud” Selig are the latest Hall of Famers, entering through the 16-member “Today’s Game Era” Committee. The Hall has four such Eras Committees (which was the group’s name going back to 1936 before it became known as the Veterans Committee). Each committee offers a second-chance for baseball immortality to players, as well as non-players, such as managers, umpires, and club executives.

John Schuerholz is known for his work with the Royals and especially the Braves, but he got his start in 1966 as a personal assistant to Lou Gorman, then director of player development for the Orioles. It was Gorman who took Schuerholz with him to the Royals, a new expansion team in 1969. Gorman went on to run the Mariners, itself an expansion team in 1976, before becoming General Manager of the Red Sox from 1984-93.

With Schuerholz and Selig the Hall now boasts 314 total inductees, 71 of whom are currently alive.

Schuerholz and Selig are considered members of the Class of 2017 along with any members elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America when their ballots are tabulated on January 18. The 2017 Induction Ceremony will be held at the Hall on July 30.