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Rough Week Changes Everything for Red Sox

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Each spring 30 teams dream of a World Series championship. And as the year unfolds, the domain shrinks until finally, at the end of October, just one remains. The 2019 Red Sox dreams were stronger than most others. They had, after all, just completed the journey and could envision doing it again. We all could see it.

No championship team reasonably expects to repeat as the ultimate winner. Championships are mostly about excellent play, but also about things you don’t fully control, like player health, the ability to make good deals to shore up for inevitable weaknesses, and the performance of your nearest competition.

Just a week after the Red Sox rode high, taking three of four games from the Yankees, the the team with the best record in baseball, the Sox chances to defend their championship have gone from probable to unlikely.

A week like no other

It wasn’t just an ordinary bad week for the Red Sox; it was a colossally bad one. After an off-day last Monday, Boston started with three straight home losses to the Rays, one of those important, nearby competitors. In the middle of that came news that the Sox front office chose to do nothing at the Trade Deadline, the last chance to shore up for a spotty and overworked bullpen.

Then came the Beatdown in the Bronx. Four straight poundings gave back Boston’s gains of the last weekend, with interest. The four-game sweep, the first dealt to Boston by New York since 2009, came at the hands of Yankee no-names like Mike Ford, Breyvic Valera, and Kyle Higashioka. Big names like Luke Voit, who has pummeled the Sox this season, as well as Gary Sánchez, and Giancarlo Stanton have all been sidelined with injuries.

Sunday’s lineup featured Didi Gregorius for the first time in the series but not Boston basher Edwin Encarnación, whose wrist was fractured by Sox pitcher Josh Smith in the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Aaron Hicks, now down with a flexor strain in his right elbow, also missed the series finale.

But it didn’t matter. The Yankees’ makeshift lineup absolutely pounded David Price, who after recording the two outs in the second inning, allowed—in order—a home run, two doubles, a single, another double, another single, and a walk before Manager Alex Cora relieved him but not before digging a 0-7 hole. Four of the six Yankee hits had exit velocities of 103.6 MPH or higher; three of them exited at 107.0+ MPH.

Darwinzon Hernández (1.1 IP) and, in particular, Ryan Weber (4.0 IP), were lone bright spots for Boston on Sunday, giving the team much-needed scoreless relief, but the Sox offense was entirely missing, yet again.

Nowhere to Hide

When companies make a lot of money their success can mask incredible inefficiencies that only the insiders see. For the Red Sox in 2019, a prodigious offense has similarly helped mask just how poorly they’ve pitched. Wins have come, in many cases, on the strength of the mighty offense, oftentimes leaving poor pitching a forgotten afterthought.

But in New York the offense this weekend sputtered with Sox batting, a miserable 23-for-128 (.180) and a weak .336 slugging percentage, rarely making the Yanks uncomfortable, let alone threatening the game. New York countered with a 42-for-132 (.318) assault that included a .553 SLG.

Sunday’s loss was the 55th of the season for the Red Sox, more losses than in all of 2018—with still 48 more games to play this year. If they play .500 baseball the rest of the way the Sox would finish with 83 wins, their lowest full-season win total since going 78-84 in 2015.

The Sox head back to Fenway for three games against the Royals and for against the Angels before heading back out on the road.


Red Sox Savage Yankees

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In two of the most satisfying wins of the 2019 campaign so far, the Red Sox have pounded the Yankees in front of sell-out crowds at Fenway Park.

Thursday’s 19-3 win marked season highs for Boston in runs (19), hits (23), doubles (10) and extra-base hits (14). The 19 runs were the most scored against New York in Red Sox franchise history.

Thursday’s series opener included seven first-inning runs for Boston, the most for Boston against the Yankees in an opening frame since scoring eight on September 26, 1989. The game included a 4-for-6 night for Xander Bogaerts, including two home runs, one of which had a career-best estimated distance of 451 feet.

On Friday, the Sox again jumped to an early 3-0 lead in the first then tacked on seven more before ending the night with a 10-5 victory. Boston has scored 42 first-inning runs over their last 25 games after scoring just 33 such runs over their first 80 games of the season. The final score gives the Sox a franchise-best five-game streak with eight or more runs against New York, besting four-game streaks in 1903 and 1912.

Before the first two games of this series the Yankees had not allowed 10+ opponent runs in back-to-back games since June 2015.

Betts Blasts

Friday’s game included a lead off home run for Mookie Betts followed by home runs in his next two at-bats, matching a Red Sox record for consecutive plate appearances with a home run. It’s the seventh time that’s been accomplished in club history, already the second time for Betts.

For Mookie, Friday’s was his fifth career game with three or more home runs, more than any other Boston player in history. Betts is now one of just eight Major Leaguers to reach as many as five such games joining Sammy Sosa, Alex Rodríguez, Mark McGwire, Dave Kingman, Carlos Delgado, Joe Carter and Hall of Famer Johnny Mize. Betts has what’s presumably a long career ahead to tie and even surpass Sosa and Mize who each have an MLB-best six such games.

Starting Depth

After two shaky outings in a Sox uniform, newcomer Andrew Cashner delivered 6.2 solid innings against the Yankees on Friday. Cashner allowed 10 hit but just three runs with a walk and six strikeouts on his way to a 10th win of the season.

Red Sox starters have now worked 6.0+ IP in six straight games, the team’s longest streak of the season. Boston starters have allowed four earned runs or fewer in each of those six games, including three or fewer ER in each of the last five.

Red Sox relievers Marcus Walden, Josh Taylor and Brandon Workman combined for 2.1 shutout innings of work, but Workman was only pressed into service when Heath Hembree stumbled, allowing two runs (one earned) without recording an out in the ninth.

Hembree has now allowed at least one earned run in three of his last five appearances, including three Blue Jays runs (and no outs) on July 16. His ERA over the past five outings is a staggering 16.88.


Sox Avoid Sweep

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With a win on Sunday the Red Sox avoided a Yankees sweep of what became a 3-game series after Thursday’s rainout, which will be made up as the second game of a split-admission doubleheader on Saturday, August 3. Sunday’s win also ended a four-game losing streak for Boston, their second such streak in 2019 after never losing more than three in a row last year.

Boston bats came alive and, aided by some defensive miscues by New York (and in particular Clint Frazier), put up eight runs. Sunday’s run tally for the Sox bested the seven total runs they managed over their first four games of the season, all losses, against New York in 2019.

David Price, who entered the game with a team starter’s best ERA of 2.83, had been 8-8 with 4.83 ERA in 21 career starts in the Bronx. With Boston he’d gone 1-6 there with an outsized 8.59 ERA. But on Sunday Price was outstanding, allowing just two runs on six hits with a walk and six strikeouts over 6.1 IP. Price has now allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts. His now 16 career wins against the Yankees are the most of any active major league pitcher.

For their part, New York countered with CC Sabathia, now in the final year of his career. Sabathia, 38, may not be the force he once was, but the hefty hurler played well Sunday, striking out a season-high eight Red Sox but allowing three runs, including home runs by J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts, over 6.0 IP. For now, Sabathia will have to wait for his 250th career win, the most among actives. His career strikeout total now stands at 3,028, the 17th-most in major league history.

Red Sox Martinez now has 8 HR over his last 19 games. Bogaerts became just the third Sox batter with a double and a home run in back-to-back games in Yankees turf, the first since Gary Geiger in 1963.

Bogaerts, who signed a six-year, $120 million extension with Boston this April, is playing with confidence and, perhaps, without worries about his future. Over his last 20 games the X-man has slashed .395 AVG/.473 OBP/.691 SLG with 24 runs scored, nine doubles, five home runs, 16 RBI and 12 walks.

In all, the Sox belted 13 hits on Sunday with multi-hit efforts from Bogaerts, Martinez, Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Núñez. Left off the hit parade was Mookie Betts, who went 0-for-5. It was the third time Betts was 0-5 this season; he had four such games in all of 2018. Betts is now 1-for-18 in 2019 facing New York after a 27-for-65 (.415) campaign against them last season.


Red Sox Free Fall

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It’s early in the season (it’s really not), it’s only one series (it’s really not). There are all kinds of ways to explain away the Red Sox mediocre year to date, but the fact is, right now it feels like a free fall inside Red Sox Nation.

On Saturday, the inexplicably lackluster Red Sox lost their fourth straight, playing with so little energy and excitement, it was difficult to muster enthusiasm even after they took an early 1-0 lead in the second inning against the Yankees. Unlike Friday’s game, where the Sox were limited to just one run, Boston manufactured plenty of opportunities on Saturday. Over and over again, however, they were unable to cash in, going an atrocious 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position and losing 5-3 to New York.

Nevermind the indignities of losing to the Yankees who’ve played with gusto despite their premier players unavailable with injuries, the Sox were similarly roughed up by the Indians earlier in the week at Fenway. Cleveland was 1-6 when they arrived in Boston before taking two of three games from the Red Sox.

The Sox are at 29-29, a .500 record, a day into June, a full 9½ games from the top of their division. Over the current four game losing streak (their second such streak this season), Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez have combined to go 9-for-46 (.196).

As measured by the key wOBA stat and shown in the above graphic, the Red Sox best every day performances compared with last season have been from Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts with solid contributions from Mitch Moreland and Christian Vázquez. Everyday plays like Betts, Martinez, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and to a lesser extent, Benintendi, have all regressed substantially.

Brightspot Devers, who wrapped up a career-best 11-game hitting streak with an 0-for-5 on Saturday, has upped his wOBA by nearly 19% compared to 2018. During his hitting streak he amassed an impressive seven straight games with an extra-base hit and a run scored, the longest such streak in club history for a player 22 years old or younger, besting the 5-game streaks of Jim Tabor (1939) and Hall of Famer Ted Williams (1939 & 1940).

Betts Back To Leadoff

Hoping to recapture some of last year’s magic, Manager Alex Cora moved Betts back to the top of the order. “This morning I got up and I said, ‘This is how we’re going to roll,'” Cora told the media. “I just spoke to Mookie and I said, ‘You’re going to lead off the rest of the season.'”

The failed experiment had produced all but nothing with Benintendi 3-for-37 (.081) as the first batter of a game. Of the 17 major league players with 30+ first-of-the-game at-bats this season, none had fewer hits than Benintendi.

With baseball’s draft coming up this week, Boston’s front off will shift its attention to shoring up the Sagging Sox. Many teams have already positioned themselves as sellers, with the Royals, for example, indicating they’re open to deals for anyone. What happens next will likely define the rest of this season and what this team will ultimately look like in 2020.


Pedroia to “be smart,” focus on staying on the field

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There will be plenty to watch as Dustin Pedroia takes the field this spring. The famously hard playing second baseman is back in camp at Fenway South preparing for a real return to action this season. Pedroia appeared in just three games in 2018 after recovering from knee surgery in October 2017.

Despite his reputation for being hardheaded, Pedroia sounded altogether reasonable in Fort Myers this week. He told the assembled media that he’s feeling good “but I have to be smart.” In a nod to his temperament, Pedey made it clear that his priority is being ready to play. “I know everyone thinks I’m crazy and I won’t listen to anybody, but that’s not the case. I want to make sure I’m on the field and doing all I can to help us win.”

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Before an injury-shortened 2017 Pedroia was highly effective the year before, slashing .318 AVG/.376 OBP/.449 SLG with 15 home runs and 74 RBI over 154 games. His 117 OPS+ in 2016 was his best such mark since a career-best 131 OPS+ in 2011.

Now some news and notes for Red Sox fans:

  • A bullpen without Joe Kelly, Craig Kimbrel, or any significant replacements for them has to be a concern for Red Sox fans as we head into the new season. For their part, the Sox are counting on a now healthy Steven Wright and also turnaround from Tyler Thornburg, who has been working with Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez. Thornburg says his off-season has been focused on improving. “All day, every day in the off-season was trying to get better,” Thornburg told NBC Sports. “Trying to get to where I know I can be, where I want to be. That was pretty much every day in the off-season for me.” Thornburg owned an outsized 5.43 ERA last season over 25 appearances in 2018, his first major league action since Boston acquired him in December 2016.
  • Chris Sale says he’d “love to” stay with the Red Sox as he approaches free agency next year. Sale thinks of Boston as “a special place…a very special city and an unbelievable fan base.” Club chairman Tom Werner says there have been conversations about a new contract with Sale but at this point, “the best thing for us is to keep these conversations private.”
  • Expect a rotating cast of characters on Red Sox radio this season. The braintrust at WEEI broke up a good duo when they let Tim Neverett walk away after three years broadcasting games alongside Red Sox Hall of Fame broadcaster Joe Castiglione. Eschewing any value that can be attributed to consistency, Sean McDonough, Chris Berman, Josh Lewin, and Mario Impemba will presumably be trying out for the permanent gig as will station personalities Lou Merloni and Dale Arnold, and NESN’s Tom Caron. Los Angeles is the chief beneficiary of EEI’s folly with Neverett signed to a radio and TV deal with the Dodgers.
  • It’s hard not to hear the strains of Reunited while reading about Jorge Posada‘s latest gig. The former Yankees backstop was hired on by Marlins’ CEO Derek Jeter as a special advisor with unspecified responsibilities. Jeter and Posada were the nucleus of the Yankees’ glory days. Posada retired from baseball in 2011.
  • Former Red Sox steedster Jacoby Ellsbury, who missed all of 2018, won’t make it on time to Yankees Spring Training this year, ailing with plantar fasciitis. Boston certainly got the best of young Ellsbury who never performed in pinstripes the same way as at Fenway. New York remains on the hook to Ells for $21 million this year and next before the relief of a $5 million buyout in 2021.
  • Former Red Sox pitcher Doug Fister, 35, has decided to retire. The 10-year major league veteran spent 2017 with Boston going 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA over 18 games (15 starts).