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Clay Buchholz is “Energized”

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Grady Sizemore, who spent eight of his 10 big league seasons with the Indians has returned to Cleveland, though this time as an advisor in the player development department.

With the Tribe in 2004-11, Sizemore was formidable, slashing .269 AVG/.357 OBP/.473 SLG with 139 home runs and 134 stolen bases in 892 games. But after missing two seasons to injuries, Sizemore’s attempted comeback in 2014 with the Red Sox didn’t go to plan with a 40-for-185 (.216) performance that included 41 strikeouts over 52 games.

Sizemore told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he reached out to the Indians during the off-season to see what opportunities might exist to help the club.

Grady Sizemore



Grady Sizemore with AJ Pierzynski
flickr photo by Keith Allison shared under a Creative Commons (BY-SA) license

Sizemore’s experiences on the team management side of the game has been enlightening. “If I had known as a player how much time went into this, I would’ve respected it a lot more,” he said.

  • Energized is how former Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz, now with the Phillies, describes himself to PhillyVoice.com. Buchholz was about to board a plane for a late December vacation with the call came with the news that his time with Boston was done. The move capped an end to a 12-year career with the Red Sox, the only team he’d known. “The Red Sox gave me a lot, gave me the opportunity,” Buchholz says, “But (this is) a new chapter, and I look forward to going on the field with these guys here.”

    • Buchholzh’s 188 career starts with Boston is the 16th most in club history. Overall, he was 81-61 with a 3.96 ERA over 206 games (4.60 ERA over the last three seasons, the 6th highest among all American League starters with 65+ GS).

  • In case you missed it (RSNStats certainly did), one-time Red Sox Wily Mo Peña, 35, is back to baseball with a minor league deal with the Indians. Peña’s last MLB appearance was in 2011 with the Mariners. From 2006-07 Peña was in Boston, arriving at Fenway in a deal with the Reds for pitcher Bronson Arroyo and slashing .271 AVG/.328 OBP/.451 SLG in 157 total games.
  • Another one-time Red Sox contributor, pitcher Justin Masterson, 31, is attempting a comeback after a season down at Triple-A with Pittsburgh’s affiliate. Big Masty was drafted by the Sox in 2006 and appeared in 67 games with Boston from 2008-09 before being re-acquired in 2015 where an outsized 5.61 ERA over 18 games spelled his last appearance at the MLB level.

Recapping Red Sox offseason

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It has been a busy offseason for the Red Sox, so you may not have followed each and every transaction since the 2015 season ended. Fortunately, RSNStats.com has you covered.

Here’s what the Sox have done so far as we inch closer to Spring Training and the 2016 campaign.

It started in November

On November 3rd Boston exercised its $13 million option to retain Clay Buchholz for at least another season. The option also allows the Red Sox to keep Buchholz for 2017 for $13.5 million. In 2015 Buchholz owned a 3.26 ERA over 18 starts, yet another downswing in his see-saw career (he has started in 16, 28, 14, 29, 16, 28, and 18 games, respectively, from 2009-15). At least by that record, 2016 should mean he will go deeper in to the season.

Last November marked a big signing by new baseball president Dave Dombrowski, who sent four minor leaguers to the Padres for the solid closer Craig Kimbrel. In 2015 Kimbrell appeared in 61 games with 29 saves (6th most in baseball), earning a 2.58 ERA. Based on his performance over six years in the majors, Baseball Reference projects him for 28 saves and a 2.80 ERA in his first year with Boston.

The Sox said goodbye to pitcher Rich Hill in November, who parlayed an incredible late season performance with Boston into a one-year, $6 million deal with the Athletics. It’s the 35-year old Boston native’s best single season payday (by far) in his 11 years in the majors.

A mighty December

The big news in December was, of course, David Price, who agreed to a seven year, $217 million contract with an opt-out in 2018, the largest contract for a pitcher in history. Much has been said about Price, so there’s little to add here but that to say it was this deal that most changes the look of the club for 2016 and beyond.

Somewhat lost in the hubbub surrounding Price was the signing of veteran All-Star outfielder Chris Young to a two year. $13 million deal. Young was, most recently, with the Yankees slashing .252 AVG/.320 OBP/.453 SLG with 14 home runs in 356 plate appearances.

The Sox signed righty pitcher Sean O’Sullivan to a minor league deal on December 2nd. In 2015, O’Sullivan was 1-6, 6.08 ERA in 13 starts with the Phillies. Since 2009 he’s had just two winning seasons, the last coming in 2010.

With Price signing still fresh in our minds came another significant 4-player dea with Dombrowski trading for Mariners relievers Carson Smith and Roenis Elias in exchange for Wade Miley and Jonathan Aro. Smith, 26, appeared in 79 games over two seasons with Seattle amassing a 2.07 ERA over 78.1 innings pitched. Smith is under Boston control for the next five seasons.

In Elias, meanwhile, the Sox got a lefty starter with a 15-20, 3.97 ERA pitching record in 51 games (49 starts) over two seasons with Seattle. Analysts have pointed to Elias’ likely reassignment to the bullpen as a specialist: he’s held lefty batters to a .218/.304/.332 line (vs .255/.333/.411 facing righty batters) over his MLB career.

As for what we lost, even ardent Sox fans won’t remember much of Aro, but they may miss the likes of durable Miley, who despite (or because of) his temper, fought back from some early tough outings to end 2015 at 11-11, 4.46 ERA in 32 starts, averaging just over 6 innings for each. Miley finished the season 3-2, 3.97 ERA in 5 starts of September, 2015. His 193.2 innings pitched were the most by any Sox hurler last season, besting Rick Porcello by 21.2 IP.

The Red Sox closed out 2015 by extending minor league contracts to three players: third baseman Chris Dominguez, center fielder Ryan LaMarre, and pitcher Anthony Varvaro, who appeared in relief in nine games (11.0 IP) with Boston in 2015 before suffering a torn right flexor tendon that required season-ending surgery.

On January 12th the Sox offered a minor league deal to former Reds outfielder Brennan Boesch who slashed .146 AVG/.191 OBP/.202 SLG in 51 games with Cincinnati last season. Boesch is more insurance for a questionable Sox outfield considering the sometimes spotty hitting of Jackie Bradley and the further question mark of Rusney Castillo‘s dependability. With the Tigers in 2010 Boesch came in 5th place for AL Rookie of the Year honors, though he has failed to make 100+ plate appearance since 2012.

Moving on

This offseason the Sox said goodbye to Jemile Weeks, who headed to San Diego for a minor league deal. Weeks flashed some excitement over limited play time with the Sox, slashing .314 AVG/.390 OBP/.400 SLG over a small, 17 game sample size.

Similar minor league deals came for former Sox relievers Alexi Ogando, who signed a contract with the Braves, and Jean Machi, who’s now with the Cubs. It was “Homerun Happy” Alexi who seemed to give up a round-tripper per appearance, though in reality it was 12 over 64 games, tied with Craig Breslow for a team-high of 4.3% of all plate appearances.

Speaking of Breslow, the lefty reliever signed a minor league deal with the Marlins that reunites him with former Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves, who has that same role with Florida. WEEI reports that the Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs all had interest in Breslow. The deal with the Marlins includes a $1.5 million if Breslow makes the major league roster as well as an opt-out in late March if he does not.

Released by the Sox were Justin Masterson, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in September but expects to be ready to find a suitor by Spring Training, as well as Ronald Belisario and Luis Jimenez. Infielder Jeff Bianchi is now a minor league free agent.


Red Sox 1st round draft picks

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draft14_220x145The 2015 MLB Draft is here, so it’s a good time to have a look at the performance of Red Sox round one selections since 2010.

2014

Infielder Michael Chavis, Georgia’s 2014 Gatorade High School Player of the Year, is currently at Single-A Greenville. In 2015 he’s played 40 games batting .208 with 5 home runs, 9 RBI, and 10 doubles.

Right handed pitcher Michael Kopech made 8 starts with the Gulf Coast League Red Sox in his pro debut, recording  a .216 opponent AVG, including .118 against lefties. He’s currently at Single-A Greenville with a 2-3, 2.62 ERA record over 9 starts this season. Over 34.1 innings he’s racked up 41 strikeouts.

2013

Left handed pitcher Trey Ball is currently with the Single-A Salem Red Sox. This season he’s 4-5, 4.42 ERA in 10 starts. Over 53.0 IP he has collected 28 strikeouts. In 2014 he started 22 games for Single-A Greenville, the 3rd most on the club.

2012

Shortstop Deven Marrero is currently with the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox where he’s slashing .243 AVG/.310 OBP/.359 SLG over 52 games this season. In his minor league career he’s played in 338 games batting .256 with 14 HRs and 126 RBI.

Left handed pitcher Brian Johnson is currently with the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox. Over his minor league career he’s 21-13, 2.30 ERA in 58 starts. Named the Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2014, Johnson went 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 5 starts for the Salem Sox.

2011

Right handed pitcher Matt Barnes, a Connecticut native, is with the big club where he’s 2-0, 1.93 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 14.0 IP. Barnes made his MLB debut as a Red Sox reliever in 2014 after spending the majority of the season at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he was 8-9, 3.95 ERA in 23 games (22 starts).

Catcher Blake Swihart was famously rushed to the big club this season when Christian Vazquez was injured in Spring Training. Swihart is batting .209 with 4 doubles, 8 RBI, a home run, and 10 runs scored over his first 26 games. A highly coveted prospect, Swihart was named the catcher on Baseball America’s All-Star First Team and BA’s Minor League Catcher of the Year in 2014.

2010

Second baseman Kolbrin Vitek batted .258 over 304 minor league games before deciding to retire in 2014 at age 25.

Home grown talent

Two homegrown Red Sox pitchers, Clay Buchholz, and Justin Masterson, have started a total of 18 games (32.7%) for the Red Sox in 2015. Buchholz was drafted in the 1st round (42nd pick) of the 2005 amateur draft while Masterson was picked in the 2nd round of the 2006 amateur draft.

By contrast, in 2015 the Mets, Giants, and Mariners have all relied upon homegrown pitchers to start over 70% of their games this season.


Pitching under pressure

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Thanks to the power of the Internet your correspondent stays current on Red Sox news even though he’s more than 2,300 miles from the epicenter of the Nation.

In the aftermath of Clay Buchholz‘ latest meltdown Tuesday, a radio station in Boston was remarking on the incredible jump in opponent batting averages when Buchholz has men on base, and how it is even higher when runners are in scoring position (i.e., on second or third base and abbreviated as “RISP”).

To this point, we’ve all talked about the failure of Red Sox pitchers to go deep into the game. But just how much of an impact are pressure situations on Red Sox pitchers this season?

These are the kinds of conversations that get me thinking. So I decided to have a look at how all Red Sox starters are doing depending on how the bases are occupied. And the results, not surprisingly, are pretty ugly.

2015-04-29_14-25-01In this table the opponent’s AVG is shaded in green when it is either at or below the opponent average in the less tense situation. For example, if the opponent batting average is lower when men are on base than when the bases are empty, it is shaded in green. As you can see, there are no such situations currently with the Red Sox. Similarly, if the opponent batting average is lower with RISP than just when men are on base, it’s shaded in green. That’s the case for both Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson thus far.

The fact is, without exception, all Red Sox starters are allowing a higher batting average by opponents when the bases are occupied and 3 of 5 of them are being hit even worse with RISP.

It’s worth noting that “men on” including “runners in scoring position.” In this analysis I didn’t compare opponent batting averages when men are on first base but not second and/or third.

Against Red Sox starters this season opponents are averaging .230 with the bases empty, .351 with men on, and a staggering .389 with RISP.

2015-04-29_14-25-02For sake of comparison, let’s view that against the pitching performance of the 2013 Championship season, where opponents’ batting averages were .250, .245, and .244 respectively.

In that special season, Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront each exhibited better performance with men on base than when the bases were empty. Though he appeared in just 16 games that season, when the Red Sox were trailing Buchholz limited opponents to a .230 average while this season opponents are hitting him at .485 in such situations.

Around the league

It may seem likely to you that opponents will hit better with the incentive of driving men in, but it’s also just as likely that a pitcher will bear down to avoid that possibility.

To test that thought, here’s a similar look thus far in the 2015 season at some of the best pitchers in the league.

2015-04-29_14-25-01_01As the analysis indicates, for 6 of the 14 “aces,” opponent batting averages stay the same or go down with the bases occupied, in some cases dramatically so. Take, for instance the White Sox’ Chris Sale and Padres’ James Shields, for whom opponent AVGs fall by .100 and .096, respectively.

Of the pitchers analyzed two stand out: Sale and the Cubs’ Jon Lester. For them, not only do opponent AVGs drop with men on base, they drop even more with RISP.

Tuesday’s tally of 8 runs on 13 hits should have been enough for assure a Red Sox win. From 2000-2014 Boston is 490-46 (.914) when scoring 8+ runs, 259-26 (.909) when doing so at home.

But the consistently bad outings for Red Sox pitching continues to take its toll on the bullpen and club’s chances for a successful 2015 campaign.


Game 8: Comedy of errors

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In a rollercoaster game Tuesday the Red Sox improved to 6-2, beating the Washington Nationals and sealing a win in their first three series of the season for the first time since 1952.

The Red Sox need wins in their next two games to match their club record of 8 wins in their first ten games, which also happened in 1918, 1920, and 1952.

Justin Masterson, in his first start at Fenway with the Red Sox since July 29, 2009, seemed rocky at first before settling in. Staked to a 5-1 run lead, however, Masterson went on to allow 6 more, giving the Nationals a lead and knocking Masterson from the game. In all, Masterson was charged with 7 earned runs Tuesday. He had never allowed more than 6 earned runs in his first stint with Boston (2008-9, 67 appearances).

Down 7-5 in the 7th inning Boston rallied for 3 runs without the benefit of a hit. The last time the Red Sox scored that many runs without a hit was in the 7th inning on August 25, 2001 playing against the Rangers.

Red Sox Nation held its collective breath for appearances by Alexi Ogando and Edward Mujica, though together they allowed just one hit and no runs over 2.2 innings of work. Junichi Tazawa was then followed by Koji Uehara, in his first appearance of the season. It was good to see Uehara earn the save with 2 strikeouts in a perfect 9th inning. In all Red Sox  relievers allowed 0 runs and no walks over 4.1 IP.

Boston averaging 6.4 runs per game

Dustin Pedroia, always solid in Interleague games, collected his 3rd home run of the season in Game 8. It took him until his 59th game of 2014 to reach that milestone.

Outstanding utility man Brock Holt started at shortstop for Xander Bogaerts, who had undergone an MRI on his sore knee earlier in the day. Holt went 2-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI. Holt has not had an error in 13 career games at short. Later came good news as doctors found no damage to Bogaerts’ knee and cleared him to play.

The Nationals have allowed 8+ runs in two straight games for the first time since August 10-11, 2010.

With the come-from-behind win the Red Sox have improved to 143-82 (.636) in Interleague games since 2003, the best such record in baseball in that time.