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World Series Resumes Tonight

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It’s the final weekend of baseball as the World Series begins again, this time in Chicago, with the Cubs and Indians knotted at 1-1. In eight of the last ten series that were tied at one game apiece, the winner of Game 1 (in this case, the Indians) has won the championship. Indeed, Game 1 winners have won the Fall Classic 70 total times (63.1% of the time), including 12 of the last 13 and 17 of the last 19 times.

In their long franchise histories, both the Cubs and Indians have eight times before found themselves in a 1-1 tie in a best-of-seven postseason series. In the previous seven times the Cubs have won just one of those series (the 2016 National League Championship Series) while the Indians won the whole thing four times (though they’ve lost each of their last three such series).

The 2016 series is guaranteed at least three more games with starts by Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jon Lester for Chicago versus Josh Tomlin, Corey Kluber, and Trevor Bauer for the Indians, respectively.

Mookie Betts


Gold Glove Finalist Mookie Betts
flickr photo shared by Keith Allison under a Creative Commons ( BY-SA ) license

On to some news and notes now for Red Sox fans:

  • Gold Glove finalists for defensive excellence were announced this week and the hometown team were well represented by Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley. The Red Sox were one of eight teams this season with at least three nominees. The Cubs and Tigers had an MLB-best four finalists each. Gold Glove winners will be announced November 8.
  • It’s the offseason so that means a perennial check in on Pablo Sandoval‘s weight. Here’s the latest.
  • What a postseason already for one-time Red Sox Andrew Miller. The Indians reliever has racked up 24 strikeouts already, the second most in a single postseason by a reliever since Francisco Rodriguez collected 28 with the Angels in 2002. Miller’s 13.2 scoreless postseason innings are eighth most in major league history. With his next out Miller can tie Hall of Famer Whitey Ford in 1961 for seventh most such innings. The all-time record is by Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson, who went 27.0 IP in the 1905 postseason. Red Sox great and Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez had the 17.0 scoreless postseason innings in 1999, good for fourth most in MLB history.
  • Of the 50 players on the Indians and Cubs roster just six have World Series experience, five of those with the Red Sox: Coco Crisp (2007), Mike Napoli (2013), Lackey (2013), Lester (2007 & 2013), and David Ross (2013). Ben Zobrist also experienced the Fall Classic before with the Rays in 2008 and the Royals last season.

And finally, while today is October 28 and the nine year anniversary of the 2007 Red Sox Championship, it’s hard to believe that 12 years ago today we were still dazed at the reality of the first Sox Championship in 84 years. Re-live the memories through the eyes of the New York Daily News, which thoughtfully re-posted their story from that day in 2004.


Sunday Morning Odds ‘n Ends

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A few thoughts on the Easter Sunday morning, just eight days before Opening Day:

  1. Last year in Late & Close situations (defined as a game in the 7th inning or later and the batting team either leading by a run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat, or on deck), new Red Sox pitchers Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith owned the 4th and 5th most strikeouts in the game, 71 and 70, respectively. That’s the good news. The bad is that the Yankees Dellin Betances had the most (103) followed by new Yankees pitcher Aroldis Chapman (85).

  2. Dustin Pedroia is just 18 hits from the 1,500th of his career. Newcomer Chris Young needs 23 to his 1,000th. David Ortiz is 16 from his career 600th double. Pablo Sandoval is five games from his 1,000th (and five errors from his 100th).
  3. The Red Sox most wins to start a season since 1913 was six in 1918. They’ve opened a season with five straight wins four times, most recently in 1999. Their most losses to open a season is eight in 1945. The Sox have opened with 6 straight losses twice, most recently in 2011. The club’s record for hitting to open a season since 1913 is 20 games by Eddie Bressoud in 1964.
  4. Monday is the 30th anniversary of the Red Sox acquisition of Don Baylor from the Yankees for Mike Easler. Baylor would strikeout a career-high 111 times that season, but also belt 31 home runs (6th most in the American League) and knock in 94 RBI on Boston’s march to the World Series against the Mets. Baylor would win his 3rd Silver Slugger award that year.
  5. In 2015 there were 508 comeback wins in the American League (the Red Sox had 27), the largest from being down seven runs (the Sox’ largest was being down four runs). There were 501 blown leads (36 for the Sox), 99 walk off wins (3 for Boston), and 105 walk off losses (8 for the Sox).
  6. No baseball club had a better batting average last season when facing an opposing starter for the 2nd or 3rd time than the Red Sox. They batted at .288 and .302 in the 2nd and 3rd appearances, respectively, compared with .252 (12th in MLB) when seeing him for the first time.
  7. The Sox schedule to start the season is three games at Indians and three at Blue Jays before the home opener with three against the Orioles, four more against the Blue Jays and three against the Rays. They’re then back on the road for three at Astros, two at Braves followed immediately by two more with the Braves back at Fenway. Boston then hosts the Yankees for three before heading out to the White Sox for three and then over to the Bronx to face the Yankees again for three more. When all is said and done, that’s the first 32 games of 2016 through May 8. All eight of those clubs except for the White Sox and Braves had better full season records than Boston, all but three had .500+ seasons in 2015.
  8. Boston and Cleveland have opened the season against each other three times before: April 5, 1979 (a 7-1 Red Sox win), April 7, 1977 (a 4-5 loss), and April 10, 1962 (a 0-4 loss).
  9. The Indians and Red Sox have played 2,015 regular season games against each other, with Cleveland leading the all-time series 1,034-973. The Indians and Yankees (1,161-962) are the only two AL teams against which the Red Sox have an all-time losing record.

Red Sox in Month One

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Red Sox Wins Over First 30 Games

Stats help put it in perspective. Excluding the blip of the 2013 season, the Red Sox have averaged over the past seven seasons just under 15 wins for their first 30 games. They’ve played .493 ball in the early going during that time. Sure enough, in the Championship years of 2004, 2007, and 2013 Boston got off to winning records, besting opponents with 19, 20, and 20 wins, respectively.

After a tough 2014 season, and despite a thrilling win on Opening Day, the first 30 games of 2015 ended with just 13 wins, the fewest since 12 in 2012. It was the 45th time since 1914 that the Sox started the first 30 games of a season with a sub .500 record.

As your correspondent reminded you at the start of last season, just nine teams have won the World Series since 1914 when opening the season with a sub .500 win percentage over the first 30 games.

Since 1914, the Sox most wins over the opening 30 is 24 (.800) in 1946. The nadir was just five (.167) in 1932.

Farrell’s Hotseat

Much is being said and written about the importance of a “win now” approach as the Red Sox enter the 2016 regular season. Manager John Farrell, his job likely on the line, surely feels the importance of getting off to a good start.

FirstMonthDoubles2000-15Sox offense in Month One of 2015 didn’t foretell the disastrous season to come, save for one anomaly unseen by Red Sox Nation for some time: the absolute paucity of doubles.

The Sox had 22 doubles April of 2015, the fewest since the 1981 club collected 21 in the first month of a season. Contrast that with Boston’s 58 doubles in the first month of the 2013 season, the most doubles by an eventual World Series winner in the first month of a season since 2000.

Despite the doubles drop-off, Boston scored 113 runs that first month of 2015. Only Toronto (122) and Kansas City (119) scored more across baseball.

Never In-Balance

Starting with the silly t-shirts in spring training camp, the “no ace” Sox pitching strategy, if one can call it that, had trouble written all over it right from the start.

With 12 wins and 10 losses came a bloated 5.04 first month team ERA that rivaled that of another best forgotten season, the Valentine’s massacre of 2012. That year, Boston opened with a 5.54 ERA in April. It turns out that 2015 was just the 11th season since at least 1913 that Boston’s team ERA was 5.00+ in the first month.

Screen Shot 2016-03-24 6.18.10 PMThe Red Sox never seemed in balance in 2015. Having scored the third most runs in baseball in April is only valuable if you don’t give up so many at the same time. But instead, Red Sox pitchers allowed 119 runs that first month, the most in baseball and more than twice as many as the Cardinals (55).

From third best to the cellar, Boston offense all but disappeared in May. Just 82 runs scored was the fewest by any MLB club that month. Still, offensive production rallied and stayed in the top third of all major league clubs for every remaining month but July.

The damage, of course, was done. By August 1st, in last place at 47-58, even another strong month of offense couldn’t overcome the Sox pitchers’ seeming inability to protect a lead. Time and again, Boston needed to come from behind for a win. In 40 of the club’s 162 games, Boston left the first inning behind in the score.

Time for Predictions

Spring Training isn’t a real indicator of regular season performance. That said, the Sox look solid offensively again this year. There’s no reason to believe Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts won’t have great seasons. Dustin Pedroia says (again) he is healthy. David Ortiz will experience the joys (and perhaps pressures) of his final season. One would expect Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval have something to prove. Travis Shaw has had a monster spring, for whatever that’s worth.

The arrival of David Price, a legitimate ace with a 2.45 ERA last season, at the head Boston’s rotation is unquestionably good news. The early injuries to Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Carson Smith, on the other hand, are disappointments. Smith, a lights out reliever, is said to be down for at least the first month. Clay Buchholz is not an ace but more of the wild card in the deck. Rick Porcello, with his 12.00 ERA over 3 spring starts is, well, less than inspiring. Joe Kelly and Steven Wright, on the other hand, have made their cases to be in the rotation somewhere.

We’re just a few days to the start of the season. 181 days later, as we turn the calendar to October, the regular season will close with the Blue Jays at Fenway.

Now’s the time when predictions are worth something. Feel free to record and lock in yours in the comments section below. Just where will our Sox be in the standings after 30 games? Where will they be on October 2nd?


3 Worth Reading

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Happy new year, fans. Very best wishes to you and your for a happy, healthy new year!

As we count down to Spring Training and a new Red Sox season, let’s have a look at some noteworthy stories from around the web for Red Sox fans:


Offensive explosion

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On a surreal day for fans as news came in that Manager John Farrell has cancer, the Red Sox poured on an impressive display of power Friday night at Fenway.

Boston beat Seattle 15-1, belting out 21 hits in the game. It was the Red Sox’ most runs scored since beating the Rockies 15-5 on September 25, 2013 and their most hits in a game since racking up 23 against the Orioles in Baltimore on August 2, 2009. The Red Sox have not had that many hits at Fenway since collecting 23 against the Twins on July 9, 2008.

The 21 Red Sox hits is tied for the 3rd most by any team this season in a 9-inning game. Only the Giants (22) and Nationals (23) have had more hits in a game in 2015.

Oddly enough, Boston now leads all of baseball with the most games of 18 or more hits this season (5).

Nine Red Sox players had multiple hits including all the starters except Xander Bogaerts. Alejandro De Aza, who entered the game after Rusney Castillo fouled a ball off his foot, also collected two hits. It was the first time nine Red Sox have had multiple hits in a game since May 28, 2005 facing the Yankees. No other MLB club this season has had nine players collect multiple hits in a game.

Rookie Travis Shaw collected his 2nd career multi-home run game becoming on the 2nd Red Sox player in the last 100 years with multi-HR games within their first 18 MLB games. The other was George Scott in 1966. Castillo’s first inning home run was the fifth of his career, his third this year, and his first ever to give his club the lead.

Shaw, Pablo Sandoval, and Brock Holt each tallied three RBI Friday. The 3rd RBI for Sandoval marked the 500th of his career.

David Ortiz, who has scored at least one run in six straight games, doubled in the first inning. He is now one extra-base hit from tying Cal Ripkin, Jr. for the 22nd-most in MLB history.

Mookie Betts collected his club-best 7th triple of the season in the 5th inning. Brock Holt also tripled in the 3rd inning. It was the seventh time this season the Red Sox have had 2+ triples in a game, the club’s most such games since also having seven in 1978.

Not to be lost in all the offensive fireworks was Joe Kelly, who allowed four hits and one earned run in 6.0 innings of work, retiring 16 of his final 19 batters faced. Kelly became the first pitcher to allow one run or less in each of his first three starts against the Mariners as a member of the Red Sox.

The Red Sox also flashed some defensive brilliance with excellent plays by Betts in the 3rd inning, and Holt and Jackie Bradley in the 8th inning. Holt’s acrobatic leaping catch in the 8th ended Nelson Cruz‘ impressive 21-game hitting streak. Cruz’ was the longest hitting streak by an American League player this season.