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Red Sox in Month One

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Red Sox Wins Over First 30 Games

Stats help put it in perspective. Excluding the blip of the 2013 season, the Red Sox have averaged over the past seven seasons just under 15 wins for their first 30 games. They’ve played .493 ball in the early going during that time. Sure enough, in the Championship years of 2004, 2007, and 2013 Boston got off to winning records, besting opponents with 19, 20, and 20 wins, respectively.

After a tough 2014 season, and despite a thrilling win on Opening Day, the first 30 games of 2015 ended with just 13 wins, the fewest since 12 in 2012. It was the 45th time since 1914 that the Sox started the first 30 games of a season with a sub .500 record.

As your correspondent reminded you at the start of last season, just nine teams have won the World Series since 1914 when opening the season with a sub .500 win percentage over the first 30 games.

Since 1914, the Sox most wins over the opening 30 is 24 (.800) in 1946. The nadir was just five (.167) in 1932.

Farrell’s Hotseat

Much is being said and written about the importance of a “win now” approach as the Red Sox enter the 2016 regular season. Manager John Farrell, his job likely on the line, surely feels the importance of getting off to a good start.

FirstMonthDoubles2000-15Sox offense in Month One of 2015 didn’t foretell the disastrous season to come, save for one anomaly unseen by Red Sox Nation for some time: the absolute paucity of doubles.

The Sox had 22 doubles April of 2015, the fewest since the 1981 club collected 21 in the first month of a season. Contrast that with Boston’s 58 doubles in the first month of the 2013 season, the most doubles by an eventual World Series winner in the first month of a season since 2000.

Despite the doubles drop-off, Boston scored 113 runs that first month of 2015. Only Toronto (122) and Kansas City (119) scored more across baseball.

Never In-Balance

Starting with the silly t-shirts in spring training camp, the “no ace” Sox pitching strategy, if one can call it that, had trouble written all over it right from the start.

With 12 wins and 10 losses came a bloated 5.04 first month team ERA that rivaled that of another best forgotten season, the Valentine’s massacre of 2012. That year, Boston opened with a 5.54 ERA in April. It turns out that 2015 was just the 11th season since at least 1913 that Boston’s team ERA was 5.00+ in the first month.

Screen Shot 2016-03-24 6.18.10 PMThe Red Sox never seemed in balance in 2015. Having scored the third most runs in baseball in April is only valuable if you don’t give up so many at the same time. But instead, Red Sox pitchers allowed 119 runs that first month, the most in baseball and more than twice as many as the Cardinals (55).

From third best to the cellar, Boston offense all but disappeared in May. Just 82 runs scored was the fewest by any MLB club that month. Still, offensive production rallied and stayed in the top third of all major league clubs for every remaining month but July.

The damage, of course, was done. By August 1st, in last place at 47-58, even another strong month of offense couldn’t overcome the Sox pitchers’ seeming inability to protect a lead. Time and again, Boston needed to come from behind for a win. In 40 of the club’s 162 games, Boston left the first inning behind in the score.

Time for Predictions

Spring Training isn’t a real indicator of regular season performance. That said, the Sox look solid offensively again this year. There’s no reason to believe Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts won’t have great seasons. Dustin Pedroia says (again) he is healthy. David Ortiz will experience the joys (and perhaps pressures) of his final season. One would expect Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval have something to prove. Travis Shaw has had a monster spring, for whatever that’s worth.

The arrival of David Price, a legitimate ace with a 2.45 ERA last season, at the head Boston’s rotation is unquestionably good news. The early injuries to Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Carson Smith, on the other hand, are disappointments. Smith, a lights out reliever, is said to be down for at least the first month. Clay Buchholz is not an ace but more of the wild card in the deck. Rick Porcello, with his 12.00 ERA over 3 spring starts is, well, less than inspiring. Joe Kelly and Steven Wright, on the other hand, have made their cases to be in the rotation somewhere.

We’re just a few days to the start of the season. 181 days later, as we turn the calendar to October, the regular season will close with the Blue Jays at Fenway.

Now’s the time when predictions are worth something. Feel free to record and lock in yours in the comments section below. Just where will our Sox be in the standings after 30 games? Where will they be on October 2nd?


Shutout history

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The Red Sox shutout the Orioles Friday and Saturday, 7-0 and 8-0, respectively, in the first two games of Boston’s final 2015 home series.

It was the first back-to-back shutouts of the Orioles by the Red Sox at Fenway since September 17-18, 1968. Since then, Boston has achieved similar shutouts wins four other times, but always as a visitor in Baltimore.

Not surprisingly, shutouts have been relatively rare for Red Sox pitching this season. These two most recent were their 8th and 9th of the season. 18 of the 30 major league teams have more shutouts than the Red Sox, with the Dodgers collecting the most, 20, thus far.

This weekend’s back-to-back shutouts by Sox pitching marked their first such pair of games against any team since April 23-24, 2011. Those games came facing the Angels in Anaheim. For two such games at Fenway, you have to go back to the magical season of 2004, when the Red Sox held the Rays scoreless for two on April 28-29.

The Red Sox club record for consecutive shutouts over the past 100 season is three, most recently on April 25-29, 2004 against the Yankees and Rays. The last time Boston achieved that feat against a single club was when they blanked the Blue Jays in three straight, August 24-26, 1990.

Breslow’s special moment

Saturday’s continued strong finish to the season for the Red Sox included a unique achievement: Craig Breslow‘s first-ever major league start after 522 games as a reliever.

Breslow, who got the call as Boston looks to conserve Eduardo Rodriguez for 2016, went a strong, career-high 4.0 innings pitched, allowing two hits and two walks, but no runs. Breslow’s previous career record for innings pitched was 3.2, more than 10 years ago.

In what Interim Manager Torey Lovullo later called “one of those special moments,” Breslow became the first pitcher to make his first major league start as late as his 523rd career game since the Cardinals Troy Percival did so in his 639th game in 2007. No lefty has done it since the Orioles Chuck McElroy started in his 604th game in 2000.

At age 35 years, 49 days, Breslow passed Scott Atchison as the oldest ever Red Sox pitcher at the time of his first career major league start.

With Breslow unlikely to go deep in the game, Lovullo called on Heath Hembree, Matt Barnes, Alexi Ogando, Tommy Layne, Noe Ramirez, and Jonathan Aro, in succession to nail down the win. It was the first time in the last 100 years that the Sox used at least seven pitchers in a shutout victory at Fenway Park, though they managed a similar feat at Tampa Bay in 13 innings earlier this month (September 13th).

After the game Boston’s newest starter admitted he enjoyed himself, if only in retrospect. “Now that it’s done, and it went pretty well,” Breslow said, “it was a lot of fun. At the time [though], I was consumed by other thoughts.” When asked if he’d be up for another start, he said he would, though he knows that opportunity may not come again.


Rock Bottom

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There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The Red Sox have played some of their worst baseball of the season, getting swept by the Angels in a tough 4-game series. It was the first time Boston has been swept by the Angels in Anaheim in the history of the matchup, which dates back to 1961.

The Red Sox’ 4 total runs scored was their 5th fewest runs scored in a 4-game series in franchise history. The 1906 club scored fewest ever (2) in 4 games against the St. Louis Browns.

Ominous signs

Dark clouds brought heavy rain to Southern California Sunday night forcing the first rainout at Angels Stadium since June 16, 1995 (for contrast, the Red Sox have had 55 home games postponed since that date, not counting postponements related to the tragic events of September 11, 2001 and the Boston Marathon bombing).

Sunday’s postponement forced a Monday doubleheader. Even with Eduardo Rodríguez on the mound, the Sox’ fate was sealed early when the Angels scored 7 in the bottom of the 2nd inning.

In Game 2, with Steven Wright pitching, Los Angeles again scored in the 2nd inning with 1 run. The Angels tacked on 4 more in the 3rd, all coming with 2 outs.

The Red Sox are now 11-39 when opponents score first this season.

When playing two on the same day, Boston has now swept 496, split 834, and been swept 447 times.

Pujols crushes it

Fresh from the Home Run Derby and with no discernible after effects, Albert Pujols managed 3 home runs on Monday, 1 in the first game and 2 in the second. Game 2 was his third multi-home run game this season. Only the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado has more such games in 2015 (4). Monday’s 3 Pujols home runs made him the current  MLB home run leader with 29 so far this season.

Since his first home run in 2001, no MLB player has more multi-home run games than Pujols (11). Before Monday night he had been tied with Alex Rodríguez, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds.

Now it’s on to Houston for 3 with the solid Astros. Angels fans will be cheering for Boston now, as the Astros start this next series just two games behind Anaheim for the Western division lead.